On Thursday, September 6th, 2001, the United States Department of Justice (DOJ) announced that it had decided not to pursue the breakup of Microsoft. But they did say they’d continue with the penalty phase of the case.

In the long run, I never really expected that the DOJ would try to break up Microsoft. The Bush Administration is unseemly friendly to big business, and they don’t come much bigger than Microsoft. Even a penalty of a couple of billion won’t really faze Microsoft – hey, maybe we can then balance the budget! That’s probably unlikely, however. This news may seem extremely important to us, but it’s only a small part of the legal pressure being placed on Microsoft right now.

The European Commission, which is the arm of the European Union charged with antitrust (among other things) is also suing Microsoft for monopolistic practices. This time, it’s not about the browser (as it is in the American case), but about the bundling of the Windows Media Player. If that’s not enough for you, Korea is also suing Microsoft. And, of course, each US State can individually still make up their own minds to sue.

Even bigger than Microsoft’s legal problems are their public relations problems. At a time when Microsoft is trying to sell us on their .NET initiative, Active Directory and Hailstorm, we find daily proof that the emphasis that they placed on security in the past was minimal – to say the least – and they’re having a hard time convincing users that they can be trusted to handle all of their user and financial data. Microsoft is also having a hard time convincing users to upgrade to the new Windows XP, which just might very well be available on October 25th.

The first problem Microsoft has with Windows XP is the hardware requirements. There are a shockingly large number of computers out there that can’t run Windows XP because they don’t have enough RAM, processor speed or hard drive speed. So convincing home users to upgrade their hardware just to run a new operating system is going to be very difficult. However, even on systems that can run Windows XP handily, they’re going to have a hard time convincing users to switch. Most of the higher-end, Windows XP ready machines are now running Windows 2000, and people are very happy with it. Windows 2000 is fast, stable, and it runs everything people want to run, so why should they upgrade? Assuming you have enough memory, CPU speed, and hard drive capacity, upgrading Windows 95, 98 or ME to XP is a no-brainer (except for one teensy point we’ll cover later). You get much more stability, a faster operating environment, and it’s way cool looking (if that’s what floats your boat).

Windows XP’s biggest problem Perhaps the biggest problem Microsoft has is one of their own making: the new licensing and activation brouhaha. According to Microsoft, when you buy XP, you’re not really buying anything. You’re renting the software for a period of (probably) two years, and you’re renting it on a single computer.

When you install XP, you have to activate it (usually via the Internet), or it stops working. If you change your system significantly (that’s a pretty vague term, but Microsoft hasn’t seen fit to give us concrete guidelines here), XP will stop working, and require reactivation. If you buy a new machine, you can’t move your copy of XP over to it – you have to buy a new copy of Windows XP for the new machine.

This may sound like a pretty bad thing, but don’t worry – you’ll hardly have time to really upgrade anything on your computer before you have to lease the software all over again. You see, Microsoft has determined that the maximum amount of time you should run XP is two years. At the end of that time, you need to go out and get a newer copy, with all the new bells and whistles on it. In order to help you remember to do that, they’ll kindly shut off XP; it will become worthless until you update. So once your two-year lease ends of Windows XP, you must then upgrade to their latest operating system, which will most likely cost you the same as it did for XP. Microsoft has never been reluctant to show their pride in their products through their pricing schemes.

Problems lead to opportunities The serious issues consumers will have with Windows XP opens an interesting “window (heh) of opportunity” for both Apple and the Linux. They have a chance to swing the attention of the standard buying public in their directions. Both companies offer stable, professional, complete operating systems with very pretty graphical interfaces, as complete a set of application programs as you’ll find on Windows, and less restrictive licensing policies. With Linux, you have far less restrictions. And Apple, of course, you have to buy all new hardware, because their operating system only works with their own computers. But in the case of Linux, it’s just a software change.

Many people are either dual-booting Windows and Linux, installing second hard drives, or resurrecting old computers to give Linux a thorough testing. They’re finding themselves very pleasantly surprised; there’s nothing you can do in Windows that you can’t do in Linux. You may have to learn slightly different ways of doing things, but with XP you’re going to be learning a whole new interface anyway!

Once you’re past the Linux learning curve (which is not very steep), you’ll find yourself cruising along just as you did in Windows. And, to slightly paraphrase the words of the immortal Groucho, “outside of the improvement, you’ll never notice the difference!”

Microsoft has a lot of battles they’re fighting right now. It will take strong, decisive leadership, and people who can avoid missteps, to see them through this time of conflict unscathed. It’s going to be an interesting few years, and I’ll be sure to give you my take as things progress. -NF

Related Links:

1. Official Windows XP Website